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☆ Fed’s Goolsbee says ‘more sniffing’ may be needed before rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Kelli Grant | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Fed's Goolsbee expects easing shelter inflation to seal path to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Nov 17 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said the U.S. central bank will "do what it takes" to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal, but that inflation looks to be already on that track if housing price pressures ease as expected. "The overwhelmingly important thing of whether we are going to clearly be on path for inflation is what happens to house price inflation," Goolsbee said at the Chicago Fed's annual Community Bankers Symposium. "If we hit the targets that we expect to hit, then we would be on path to get to 2%, and that's what I call the golden path -- no recession, and it gets down -- but that housing inflation is the thing we should really keep an eye on." Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fed's Goolsbee does not see rise in long-term yields imperiling soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee

On Tuesday, Goolsbee said his own decision at the Fed's next meeting in September will be driven by what happens on prices. And those metrics suggest, Goolsbee said, that the Fed is on the "golden path" of disinflation without a recession. But, he added, he does not see a tight connection between labor market tightness and inflation - meaning, he believes that inflation can fade even as the job market stays healthy. The Fed's September rate call will depend on what happens with inflation, as will how long the Fed will keep rates high and when it will start cutting, he said. "The answer is, it totally depends on whether we're able to navigate the path and get inflation down without a recession," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Obama, Brendan McDermid, Goolsbee, that's, Banks, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: University of Chicago, Democracy, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, U.S, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. "Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the 'soft landing' narrative," Citi market strategists wrote in a note. Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Florian Ielpo, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Markets, European Central Bank, Lombard, U.S, Citi, Intel, Lam Research, Wells Fargo Investment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Boston, London

"That would be a Fed triumph and that can involve a couple of rate increases over this year." Remarks from Goolsbee previously sounded more skeptical of the need for further rate hikes on top of what the Fed has already done. The report is suggestive of labor market cooling, Goolsbee said, and the full effect of the Fed's 500 basis points of rate hikes since last March is still to come. Financial markets are pricing a Fed rate hike when policymakers next meet, in two and a half weeks. Services inflation even pre-pandemic was typically higher than the Fed's 2% goal, he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we're, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Fed, Thomson

☆ Fed trying to figure out if rates are high enough: Goolsbee
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

June 30 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said that he and colleagues will be parsing what will be "a lot of data" between now and the Fed's meeting in late July to assess if the US central bank needs to push borrowing costs up higher to bring down inflation. "That's what we are trying to figure out: have we done enough already? Do we still have substantially more to do, a modest amount more to do, and can we get inflation down without a recession?" Goolsbee said in an interview on Fox Business. Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fox Business, Thomson

He said the full impact of central bank rate increases to date had yet to be felt. “I try ... to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you are still weeks out from the meeting," Goolsbee said. "If you did not do that, the consequences for the financial system and for the broader economy would be extremely negative," Goolsbee said. "Even the anticipation of these problems does have consequences on the economy, it does have consequences on financial markets." Still to come before the Fed's June rate decision is another monthly read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now at a decades-low of 3.4%, and on consumer price inflation.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: won't prejudge June rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 28 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Sunday he won't 'prejudge' whether he would support an interest-rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting in June, but noted that the full impact of the central bank's rate increases to date have yet to be felt. "We are going to get a lot of important data between now and then," Goolsbee told CBS's Face the Nation. "The actions that the Fed takes take months or even years to work their way through the system...there's no doubt inflation is too high, still -- it has come down -- and we are just trying to manage, can we get inflation down without starting a recession." Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says May rate hike was 'close call' for him
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 15 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that his decision to support an interest rate hike at the U.S. central bank's most recent meeting in May was a "close call" as he weighed the impact of credit tightening from recent bank stresses. "The thing that made it a close call for me is this big question mark about what is going to be the impact of this on credit conditions," Goolsbee told CNBC, adding that things did not appear to have become notably worse since the prior Fed meeting. Asked about market expectations for rate cuts later in the year, even though Fed policymaker forecasts do not call for any, Goolsbee appeared to have a warning, noting that failed Silicon Valley Bank took off its own hedges against higher interest rates because it believed markets and not the Fed's projections. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: 'way too premature' to expect June rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"We know that credit conditions like the ones we are seeing now in the past have been correlated with recessions, credit crunches," Goolsbee told Fox News. "It's way too premature to know what to do with monetary policy." Goolsbee voted with all other Fed policymakers on Wednesday to raise the Fed's policy rate by a quarter point to 5.00%-5.25%. Goolsbee on Friday said he is paying particular attention to credit conditions, given the recent failure of First Republic Bank and the troubles of other regional banks. "It has to give you some pause" about raising rates, he said, because tighter credit conditions are likely to slow the economy.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says he is watching for other 'credit shoes' to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 19 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that after the failure of two large regional Fed banks last month roiled the financial sector, he is waiting to see "whether there are other credit shoes to drop." "Not in the crisis sense, but in the how much squeezing is going to be coming up from the bank side," Goolsbee said in an interview with American Public Media's Marketplace. "I think it’s going to matter for whether this economy is going to slow down." In the next two weeks, he said, he will focus on prices and credit. Reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks regain some lost ground as investors interpret U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month compared with economist expectations for 200,000 jobs. "That sentiment shift has been more powerful than any 'negativity' to be taken from today's jobs report," he said. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.15% on the day but added 1.5% for the week. Earlier it had jumped sharply in response to the jobs data, gaining as much as 0.82%. Gold prices also regained some lost ground from their earlier reaction to the jobs data.

☆ Fed's Evans: need to get policy rate to a bit above 4.5%, then hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 21 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans on Friday repeated his view that the U.S. central bank ought to get policy to "a bit above" 4.5% by early next year and then hold it there so as to restrain growth and bring down too-high inflation. "Front-loading was a good thing, given how far below neutral rates were" as recently as March, when they were near zero, Evans told the regional Fed bank's Community Bankers Symposium earlier Friday. "But overshooting is costly, too, and there is great uncertainty about how restrictive policy must actually become, so this is going to put a premium on the strategy of getting to a place and a level where policy can plan to rest and evaluate data and developments." The remarks were shortened version of similar comments given two weeks ago; the bank posted a video of Evans' presentation on its website. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall Street ends higher as hopes for less aggressive Fed grow
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts widely expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight meeting in November. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 4.74%, the Dow gained 4.89% and the Nasdaq rose 5.22%. Schlumberger (SLB.N) shot up 10.33% to help to lift the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) 2.76% after reporting a quarterly profit above expectations. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.59-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.03-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 60 new highs and 322 new lows.

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